Snitz does an analysis of EV vs gas vs Hybrids.
Below shows the yearly carbon footprints of three cars in comparison to a Tesla Model Y. The figures come from Dominion Energy’s CO2 emissions calculator. I use the avg number miles driven by US drivers per year @ 14,000.
How much carbon is produced by driving each car
Tesla Y: 2,740 lbs per year. Camry: 9,568 lbs per year. RAV4 hybrid: 6,914 Hybrid: 6,019 lbs per year.
MIT estimates that producing the Telsa-sized 80 l Wh battery produces approx. 22,000 lbs of excess carbon in the production of a vehicle (using the midpoint of their range from 3-16 tons).
Therefore the carbon breakeven point for these cars: Camry 3.2 years, RAV 4 Hybrid 5.3 years, Camry Hybrid 6.7 years, If you drive less than average the breakeven point is longer. If you drive more it’s shorter*.
Is there a compelling environmental benefit to buying an EV car over a Hybrid? Not necessarily, especially when compared to a Hybrid. In fact, a plug in hybrid is superior for the average driver as it’s seldom used in gas mode and requires little additional carbon to produce its much smaller battery.
Is there any reason for our government to subsidize EV cars and not Hybrids? NO.
Will this eventually change? Over time batteries will get smaller, lighter, less expensive and have a much greater range. This will not happen quickly. Most experts put the time frame at 5-6 years out. However, when EV cars can travel 600 miles+ on a charge, they become exponentially more feasible for most drivers. Currently, EVs represent only about 1% of cars on the road in the US and 7% of new car sales (2024). That number will grow as battery tech eventually improves which will incidentally also increase the market penetration of hybrid plug in vehicles.
Snitz’s bottom line. Short run: EVs are not a big winner for the environment and don’t compromise a large share auto sales. 5-6 years out conventional gas cars will be phased out by EVs and Hybrids (of which a large share will be plug in).
PS. China currently dominates the global marketplace for refining precious metals (particular Lithium @ 87%). If the US gov follows through on its commitment to promote metal refining in this country, the US can safely pursue EV options without security concerns. Our gov would be better served spending money on that than EV subsides for the wealth to buy Teslas.
*Range anxiety is a massive issue hurting EV adoption. Depending on how much “long haul” driving you do heavy mileage may or may not make an electric car pay off faster but create charge issues mid-journey.
Camry Analysis
Camry Hybrid Analysis
RAV4 analysis
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