First off, I'm an expert out of my field, so if my facts are wrong here or I'm FOS, consider yourself forewarned. Now onto the brilliant content!
EV cars/trucks need to be evaluated "down the road" since the tech is changing by the second. This charge is being led by Tesla, with other manufs fighting for their lives (except some outliers in China/see link at end).
Not environmentally different yet. EV cars require a larger carbon footprint to build and produce less carbon to operate. Ergo, it takes about 4-5 years for an EV car to break even environmentally (depending on where it's used and how many miles/year it's driven). As EV tech advances, the breakeven point will come down a bit.
Where EV cars shine, however, is in maintenance. They're far, far easier to service and don't require oil changes, frequent brake pad replacements, etc. This allows a completely different dealer approach.
Most car manufs have dealers who make their money servicing cars, not selling cars. Because Teslas need almost no service, they bypass all this infrastructure and have far fewer dealers, which operate as showrooms only. Tesla also forgoes advertising. In fact, for most Domestic and foreign car manufs, the advertising costs per car exceed the profit they earn per car. Another plus for Tesla.
The price revolution. Tesla has lowered the price of its vehicles substantially this year, with the Model Three being available for about $35,000, including the US tax rebate. Musk has further promised to drop the price by as much as 50% in the coming 48 months through a new auto platform and tech improvements. That has the potential to make EV cars affordable for the masses and put the hammer down on Tesla's competitors.
The battery revolution. Tesla and others are beginning to produce batteries that will go further on a charge (500+ miles) and cost less to produce. As battery tech improves, EV cars will be feasible for more people who travel long distances. Keep in mind many drivers don't have convenient charging at their residences, and charging en route is a pain in the rear end. This issue may prove to be an impediment to many future buyers (fossil fuel cars aren't dead yet).
Also, new batteries are likely to be less reliant on certain precious metals, particularly Cobalt, which come from unfriendly nations.
Meanwhile, Lithium, the key ingredient to most EV batteries, is an important element to this puzzle. China refines almost 85% of the world's Lithium. The US will need to enter and gain traction in this area else we'll be reliant on China (a non-starter).
Finally, Tesla has plans to produce a new Nickel based battery (not reliant on Lithium). This is a super promising technology and could vastly improve the supplier chain for US EV manufs! (link below).
Conclusion: EV cars are going to be an increasingly growing share of the global auto market, but it won't happen all at once.
Tesla's new Cobalt Battery
China's EV car manufs
Comments