Whatever you may think of the nation’s COVID response, Pfizer and Moderna’s bosses took advantage of their stock’s rise and timed their sale of such on the way down.
Let’s dive in. Both stocks exploded as the pandemic took hold. Moderna went up over 2,000% (going from $20/share in early 2020 to $450/share in Sept 2021). At the peak, its Chairman Bancel started dumping a sizeable portion of his position selling approx 2 million shares (worth over $500 million). The stock now trades at about $90/sh a drop of over 75% from its high.
The typical Moderna investor got in late, made some fast money and likely rode the stock all the way down…losing their ass.
Likewise, Novo Nordick the makers of Ozempic and Wegony have seen their stock rise over 100% in the past 18 months. Will this valuation eventually fall back down to earth leaving investors late to the party with a massive headache?
I suspect yes! Both drugs (except for the excessively obese) require the unsuspecting user to buy into the notion that a $12,000 per year drug in perpetuity is the proper substitute for a prudent diet and exercise. Not only is that wrong, its wildly exploitative.
The severe side effects of these drugs are just being understood and under the best of circumstances, they lose their effectiveness, and the weight returns as soon as the hooked patient goes cold turkey. Ergo stops shelling out $1,000/month.
So do I expect the stock of Novo Nordisk to eventually fall back to earth? You bet.
In case you think I may have this wrong, it’s time to take a Spritzler victory lap. Last year I predicted:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would be successful, undeterred by the West’s economic and military pushback. So far Vlad’s killing it.
Trump’s detractors and legal attackers would strengthen his brand. The Supremes would provide legal cover allowing him to ascend to the presidency. So far so good?
Israel’s military response would do little to deter its adversary Iran (& its proxies Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah) while severely weakening its economy, security, and global standing. Looks like I called that one right as well.
No, I’m not a fricken genius, I’m just right a lot…except when I’m not.
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